THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (updated 4/11/14)
The overall message in 2016 for Democrats is that Republicans are out of touch with everyday people and favor the rich. Closing the government because they don't like ObamaCare will be cited an example of their inability to connect with average voters.
The overall message of Republicans will be the same as what propelled David Jolly to victory in the Florida special election; ObamaCare is one example of Government overeach and Democrat's love of excessive Government. It is a re-tooling of Ronald Reagan's "Tax and tax, spend and spend" mantra with some excessive regulation thrown in.
DEMOCRATS
HILLARY CLINTON The nomination belongs to Hillary Clinton, if she cares to run. If she does run, many others will not. She'll be in late 60s in 2016, so age might be a factor, but her health is considered good. Coming so close to the nomination and losing in 2008 will be another factor. She has tremendous name ID and will have as much staff and money as she needs. She will have defend her actions in Benghazi, Libya while Secretary of State and the Clinton Universal Health Care efforts early in her husband's first term.
JOE BIDEN. The Vice President badly wants to be President, he has run two times before and is a good fund-raiser. He probably will not run if Hillary does because he knows the odds are against him and he will be 73 on Election Day 2016.
MARTIN O'MALLEY The Maryland Governor has very little name recognition outside of his home state. Money will also be a challenge for him. His Liberal policies as Mayor of Baltimore and Governor will make him popular in the Primaries, but less acceptable to voters in the general election. He plans to run no matter what Hillary Clinton does.
BRIAN SCHWEITZER When he was the Governor of Montana, he skills as a communicator and the abiltiy to connect with voters were often on display. However, the traditional problems of lack of name ID, no money and coming from a low popualtion state are challenges for him. He is strongly considering running and needs to do very well in Iowa and New Hampshire to have any chance of success.
ANDREW CUOMO The Governor of New York comes from a political family (his dad is a former NY Governor) and a state that can provide him with lots of money and votes. However, a lot of things would have to fall into place for him to take the plunge.
ELIZABETH WARREN The Massachusetts Senator is the darling of the far left wing of the party and the stated enemy of Wall Street and the financial services industry. He supporters want her to run but she will have a tough time in the primaries and will be hard to elect in the general election.
REPUBLICANS
TED CRUZ is the articluate, bombastic and very conservative freshman Senator from Texas. He tells a compelling story about his father escaping from Castro with money hidden in his underwear. This will help the Republicans with Latino votes. When he spoke to a group a Clergy, he earned high marks for his emotional content delivered without notes. His efforts to close the government in order to achieve budget refrom and repeal ObamaCare will endear him to the most conservative voters, but can work against him with other voters.
RAND PAUL is the son of two time Presidential candiate Ran Paul and is the Jr. Senator from Kentucky. He, like his father, is more of a Libertarian than a Republican. He is already traveling to Iowa, the site of the first in the nation Caucus.
PAUL RYAN is the Republican's 2012 V.P. Nominee, Chair of the House Budget Committee and a policy/budget wonk who will run a "I can fix this" race. However, he is now talking about becoming the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. A VERY powerful post that would not allow him the time to run for President.
MARCO RUBIO is the Republican Senator from Florida. He has assembled staff and has made several trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. Like all the other hopefuls, he attended the Jewish Republican event in Las Vegas hosted by Zillonaire Republican money man Sheldon Adleson. Rubio tells a compelling "only is America" story of how his parents left Cuba just before Castro's take over, worked hard, participated in the American dream and you can to. He tells this story in either English or Spanish which will help him with Hispanic voters.
JEB BUSH is the former Governor of Florida and thought by many to be the best politician in the family, even though his father and brother were both elected President. He connects well with people and speaks fluent Spanish (he wife is Hispanic) which will help with the growing and important Hispanic voting block.
CHRIS CHRISTIE is the Republican Governor of very blue N.J. who balanced the state's budget with tough love and tough talk. His blunt talk enables him to connect with the average guy. NJ Senator Frank Lautenberg's death was Christie's first decision of his Presidential campaign. He called for a special election rather than oppoint a Conservative to replace Lautenberg.
He was re-elected Governor with a 21 point margin and supported by blacks, hispanics, women and independents. Whomever is the 2016 Republican nominee for President, will need those voting blocks to win.
If he is the nominee, he'll probably carry blue NJ which helps with the Electoral College math. If all the traditional Blue states vote Democrat and the Red states vote Republican, the Democrat nominee only has to get 28 more electoral votes to win. However, 84% of the Tea Party votes in the primaries, which might make it hard to Christie to win the nomination.
If there is any evidence he was involved or knew about closing access lanes to the George Washington Bridge and then lied about it, he has absolutey no political future.
2014 SENATE RACES
Republicans need a net gain of 6 seats to take control of the Senate in the 2014. States that are traditonally Republican and voted for Romney in 2012 will be the key. Gun control and Obamacare will be traditonal issues. Republicans will also run on the IRS making it more difficult for conservative groups to get tax exempt status, the Justice Department tapping journalists phones, conflicting and changing accounts about Benghazi and the Army's record on sexual harassment.
If Republicans can convince voters that they can better manage the government, Democrats want to take people's guns away and Obamacare is bad, it will be a Republican year. However, Republicans must have a message that connects with voters. Republicans can't win as the party of "NO." Democrats will tell voters that they are the "moderate center" and can break the logjam in Congress. Most blame the recent government shutdown on Republicans which will make it harder for Republicans to convince swing voters to vote for them.
Here are the 2014 Senate races to watch.
MONTANA Democrat Max Baucus is resigned to be the Ambassador to China in this red state and a popular former Democrat Governor has declined to run so Republicans are counting on this as a pick-up. Governor Steve Bullock (D) appointed Lt. Governor John Walsh to replace Baucus who will now run for election as the incumbent.
ALASKA, Democrat Mark Begich barely won this seat in 2008 over incumbent Ted Stevens, who had just been convicted of a felony. Alaska is a very red state
NORTH CAROLINA Democrat Kay Hagan has never lost an election, but Romney did carry N.C. and she voted for ObamaCare. Like Landrieu in LA and Pyror in AR, she can't win without the Black vote but those candidates don't want Obama in their state to fire-up the Black vote.
IOWA, Tom Harkin is retiring in a true toss-up state.
SOUTH DAKOTA, Democrat Tim Johnson never fully recovered from a massive stroke and is retiring in this red state.
LOUISIANA Democrat Mary Landrieu continues to win re-election in this red state, but she will have a fight on her hands. She voted for ObamaCare and Romney won LA.
MICHIGAN Democrat Carl Levin is retiring in this traditonally blue state that voted for Obama in 2012 after it elected a Republican Governor and Republican majorities in the state House and Senate in 2010.
ARKANSAS Democrat Mark Pryor is popular and the son of a popular former Governor and Senator. But Arkansas is a red state and voted for Romney and Pryor voted for Obama Care.
WEST VIRGINIA Democrat Jay Rockefeller is retiring in this very red state. The state's other Senator, Joe Manchen, is a Democrat but often votes like a Republican. Popular 7 term member of the House Shelly Moore Caputo will be the Republican nominee. Obama lost all 55 WV counties in the 2012 Presidential election.
VIRGINIA, Mark Warner is retiring in this previously very red state. However, the large poplaltion of the DC suburbs in Virgina has turned it into a swing state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen was feeling good about her re-election chances but now has to worry about former MA Senator Scott Brown. Brown won the special election to succeed Ted Kennedy and became a Republican icon because he won the "Kennedy" seat in the Senate. He moved his legal residence to his vacation home in NH and has annouced he challenge Shaheen. This now becomes a "toss up" race.
These Senate races have a "red" and "blue" dynamic. However, we will see if Republicans have cured themselves of nominating candidates the conservative base loves, but can't win the general election. Todd Akin (MO) Christine O'Donell (DE) and Sharron Engle (NV) are examples of Republicans handing the election to the Democrats by nominating candidates who can not win.
2014 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Big Republican wins in state legislatures in 2010 allowed Republicans to re-draw state Congressional districts to favor Republicans. Because of this Gerrymandering, the Republican majority will probably stay in place until the census of 2020 that will affect the elections of 2022. Of course, Democrats Gerrymander Congressional Districts too, when they can. Most agree there are less than 15 seats in the House that are truly toss-up seats.
HOW OBAMA WON RE-ELCTION IN 2012
President Obama won the election with a combination of things. He advertised often and early to define himself as a regular guy who is working hard to dig the economy out of very deep hole. More importantly, he advertised often and early to define Mitt Romney as a Zillionaire who is out of touch with the average American, has bank accounts in the Cayman Islands, etc. This proves once again that in politics if negative advertsing is not refuted, it is accepted as fact. The Swift Boat ads run against John Kerry is another example of this. Romney and his staff declined to do any "personality" ads to define him as compassionate and caring because it would shine a light on his Morman faith, which his staff thought would have a negative public reaction.
No matter how Romney chose to respond, campaign finance laws did not allow him to spend any money until he was the official nomine of his party. This kept him off TV until 10 weeks before the election, which was to late. The Republicans are considering changing the Primary election process and moving up the date of their convention so this does not happen again. Of course, if Republicans do this, Democrats will do the same thing because they also have to nominate a candidate in 2016.
Obama ran an EXCELLENT high-tech campaign and that got him re-elected even with 8% unemployment and gas that was $2.00 a gallon more expensive than when he took office. My friend and fellow election analysis pundit Charlie Cook said in October, "If Obama wins it is because of the campaign, despite the economy. If Romney wins, it is despite the campaign and because of the economy." Obama ran a computer/digital based campaign that was able to pull together a coalition of young, Blacks, Latinos and independent voters, groups that supported him in BIG numbers in 2008 and again in 2012. The Democrats took the well oiled machine they won with in '08, refined it and won again. It had campaign staff in the ten battleground states 12 or 13 months before the election. A luxury of being the incumbent and having no Primaries to compete in. Romney could only put staff in those ten states 3 or 4 months in advance.
In the 2012 election, the demograhics of voters changed, Democrats figured that out, Republicans did not.
Black voters voted at a highed percentage that white voters for the first time ever. The number of white voters actually decreased from 2008 to 2012. In the 1992 election, Hispanics were 2% of the vote. In the 2012 election, Hispanics were 10% of the vote.
Republicans could have hung this economy around Obama's neck and won by ten points, if they had nominated the right candidate with the right message. They did not nominate the right candidate and Obama won.
Obama can also thank Bill Clinton who ran around the country doing his ususal good job and delivering Obama's message and connecting with voters.
THE FOUNDING FATHERS WOULD BE PROUD
When the Founding Fathers designed Congress, they made Members of the House of Representatives accountable to the people at the ballot box every two years. The concept is that, unlike the six year terms in the Senate, voters had short-term control over who represents them in the House.
Voters have used this electoral option more often in recent years than in previous election cycles. In 2006, voters threw out the Republicans and in 2010 voters threw out the Democrats. In 2012, the people decided to maintain the status quo?
It is exactly the measure of control the founders wanted. The people spoke at the ballot box and the newly elected Representatives carried followed their instructions.
Voters sent Tea Party candidates to Congress to accomplish one thing and one thing only, shrink the size and cost of government. House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama all knew, Tea Party (especially Freshmen) members of the House of Representatives were NOT going to abandon their principles and agree to ANYTHING that did not lower spending and NOT raise taxes. Many people believed that Conservatives and Liberals should both compromise and "meet in the middle." In the view of Tea Party members of the House, years and years of "compromising" is why the U.S. Government is to large and to expensive.
Newly elected Republicans did not compromise, because if they did, they knew would have been thrown out on their ear at the ballot box in November 6, 2012. The hardest hard line Tea party members would lose for abandoning their principles on the only task they were sent to Congress to do. Tea party folks in traditonally Democrat or swing districts are at risk of losing their seats anyway. They never considered compromise because they are already at risk. Attaching budget reduction to the "must have" legsilation to raise the debt ceiling forced the Congress to act NOW. No more, in the view of Conservatives, of passing off the vote to another time or place.
Many state legislatures are finding themselves in a similar quandry. The difference is that 47 states have a constituional requirment for a balanced budget, the US Government does not. California, Minnesota and Wisconsin are three examples of the pain of balancing a budget in a recession.
The main problem lies in the fact that for decades the U.S. Congress has ignored a fundemental rule of governence. If you are going to spend like a Liberal, then tax like a Liberal. The Scandanavian countries are an example, their tax rate is high so they can provide "cradle to grave" services to all. In America, we can't want to be all things to all people but tax at a rate that represents restrained governmen
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